Starting up Again

I am suddenly getting the urge to write about this market again. The action for the past few months has been so boring that I have lacked enthusiasm. That has changed. The market volume is picking up. I believe mostly because of all the crazy things happening in the precious metals along with commodities. Basically anything linked to the dollar trade. I see a very tricky next six months coming in stocks. Are we going to make new highs in the Dow? I don't think so. I believe that we will see a big rally that everyone wants followed by new slide back down. I believe that we are close to a top and I will post some charts coming up this week to prove my theory.

Bearish

The market basically has a double bottom for the year. I don't believe it. This market is just begging for longs to get in. I am bearish because at the end of everyday we sell off. That is the sign of a bear market. Not to mention there is no volume on any of these rallies. I am staying bearish as long as we stay below the 50 day m.a. on the S&P(115710). Today I have 107800 as my pivot. Above that is 109700 and below that is 105950. Selling rallies.

Bearish

The fact is the Bears are back and the Bulls are on the run. This trade is very scary and unpredictable. There could be another crash in the horizon. I say this because the market is trading scared like it did in 2008. When this starts to happen it is like a virus that takes hold of the market place. Until they get everybody out of the market, it cannot go back to normal trading. I believe they have to trade down to the low at 105600 in order to really see what this market is made of. The have to trade down there to prove to everybody that a flash crash is bullshit. The market really crashed and deserved to be at that price. Once this happens the market will resume to a technical trade, which I believe is Bearish. I am selling rallies until proven wrong. Resistance is 110525 and support is 108450. Below 108450 is 105600 and I believe it will happen fast.

Bearish

When the market sells off, it happens quickly and with high volume. This tells me that the market is in trouble. When all of the guys on CNBC are calling for 1300 in the S&P, I tend to get worried. Like I have said before, I will be selling rallies until we make a new high for the year. This market is in bearish mode until then. 115675 is resistance. My pivot is 112975. If we can stay above that area we will trade up to 115675 where I will be a seller. If we cannot hold that area we will trade down to 110275. Selling rallies.

Bearish

The market cannot close above 116025. We should trade down to 113200. If we fail there, then 110400 is next. This market acts like it wants to go higher and before you can blink they are selling off. The selling is coming late in the day which is a sign that they are going lower. Selling rallies until proven wrong.

Bearish

My pivot to the upside is 116025. If we trade above that then the market should trade up to 119000. I am not convinced of this rally. I believe that we will be in a trading range for awhile bearing any news. That range should be 116025 down to 107350. I feel that we are at the top of the current trading range. I am trading small and from the short side. I cannot believe in a stock market when Gold is running the way it is. People do not want to be invested in this stock market. I do not blame them. This is for professionals only. That means that we should trade technically in a range. There is nothing I believe that will push this market above the highs of the year.

Bearish

I am Bearish until this market makes a new high for the year. I believe that we have seen the top for the year and will be in trading range from here on out. There is so much intervention with every issue in the world. They just fix debt issues with more debt..... Debt on top of Debt. If another problem occurs what do they do then? They cannot spend anymore money because there is none. The futures are all over the place. Which tells me that the bears are back and they are taking control. When the VIX has moves like we have seen this week, that means everyone is scared and looking for protection. I am trading small taking advantage of volatility. Resistance is 117370 and support is 111200. My pivot to the upside is 114100. If we stay below that we should trade 111200.

Bearish

This is crazy..... That is all that I can say. What changed this market overnight. I believe that there is more than meets the eye. My guess is that some banks or one bank lost a lot of money and we have not heard the news yet. There has been nothing but selling. I cannot believe that Europe is the cause of this. We shall see. I am extremely bearish because the vix is exploding again and that is how it started the last free fall. Be careful and trade small.

Bearish

If the market cannot hold 116475 we should trade down to 114475. I feel that this will happen because this market is reaching a breaking point and the VIX is proof of this. When the VIX pops this hard and fast this usually means correction or change in trend. I believe that a change in trend could very easily be happening. I will be more of a believer if we trade below the 50 day m.a (116725) for more than 2 weeks. This will force most of the longs out of the market and give the power back to the shorts. I am selling rallies until they violate 116725.

Slightly Bearish

It is the end of the month. We have had a nice run up this month so look for some selling going into the close. Goldman Sachs is opening down 8 bucks this morning due to concerns of some lawsuits. This might be a lag on the market today. Also look out for news on the Greece bailout plan. That can happen at any time. I will be selling rallies in front of 121200 looking for a pullback to 119550. Above 121200 look for 121625. Trading small and selling rallies.

Slightly Bullish

This market takes all the bad news very well. This stock market should be on its ass but it is not. Earnings have been all around pretty good. The news with all the down grades from S&P on these countries has not taken us down that far. The S&P is still only 30 points from yearly highs. This morning I have 119525 as my pivot. If we stay above that we should trade up to 121200. If we can't stay above it we should trade back down to 117850. 117850 is my support area. If that area gets taken out I will be looking for 116150. This market is very volatile and overall the bulls are still in control. I will buying breaks while above 119525. Selling rallies below it.

Not Trading Until April 28

Slightly Bearish

The market has reached one of my resistance areas at 120675 and held for now. I am short small leaning on that area. If this area gets violated I have 121400 as resistance. This market is very hard to get in front of right now. There is light volume and the Bulls have had there way with it. I will be trading from the short side as long as we stay below 121400. I will be watching the volume very closely today. Along with the direction of the dollar. Right now the dollar is up and we are down. If the dollar stays strong today we should stay down on the day. Support is 118675.

Slightly Bullish

It seems like the higher we go the less volume we have. Yesterday was so anemic that I am seriously wondering where all of the traders are? It seems as though I should just be trading crude or commodities. The market wants to go higher and it does not care if volume comes in. We closed above 11000 in the Dow and we should continue on this rally. 120675 is Resistance in the S&P futures. That will be a big test to the upside. I am waiting for that test before I attempt to short this market. Support today is 118500. Trade small and buy breaks.

Slightly Bearish

The Dow has now gotten above the 11,000 mark that all of the fund managers have been waiting for. The question is what do we do now? I believe that you will see some volatility up here due to short covering and some longs taking profits. If we close above it today look for this market to extend the rally for the next couple days. Resistance in S&P is 120675 and support is 117475.

Neutral,Slightly Bearish

There was little follow through to the downside yesterday. We made a new low from the prior day and then continued higher for the rest of the day. What else is new. Volume was pretty good on the rally so I expect this market to test the highs again. I am not bullish because of the way we trade when we break. High volume with a panic feel. No one wants to be the last person to get out of their longs. Resistance is 119325 and support is 116525.

Bearish

The market is showing signs of correction coming. Volume increases on the downside and there are fewer buyers as we break. That does not mean we will not rally one more time before we start to break. If we close today below 117250 I will believe that the highs are in for awhile. Resistance is 118925 and support is 116800. I will be selling rallies as long as we stay below 117875.

Slightly Bearish

We held the perfect Bell Curve for the year at 118375. Now we have a double there as well. I will be short until they take that high out. Resistance is 118825 and support is 117225. Volatility and volume is still very low so do not look for too much to happen today.

Neutral

A perfect bell curve for the year is 118375. That should be an area that longs should take some profits. Aside from that, I see no reason for this market to stop this rally. Light volume with little or no volatility means the market continues on its trend. I am not bullish, but I need to see some sellers before I am a believer of being short. Trading small and neutral until then. Support is 116175 and resistance is 118375.

Neutral,Slightly Bullish

We are in an uptrend off the lows of the year. As long as we stay in an uptrend off these lows and stay above the 50 day m.a. we should trade higher. You can only fade the tape for so long. This market just wants to rally. I may not believe it, but the market is telling me otherwise. Resistance is 114700, support is 113050 and 111425.