End of the Month

The S&P was up 2.2% for the month. The best January since 2006. Nothing seems to take this market down. Friday was just a chance for the longs to reload. I am usually a skeptic of moves like this, but with Gold on the decline and the Euro on the up and up it is hard to fade this rally. The market is just telling us that there is very little risk in the currency market. This just points to a solid stock market. The opening range for Gold in 2011 is the high of the year. That is very bearish and I hesitate to say that Gold might be in for a real correction. The S&P opening range for the year is the low of the year. That is very bullish. The trade right now seems to be long equities and short gold. Todays trade was a grind up. The market opened up today and never really tried to sell off. It was surprising to me not to see any selling on the close. The market is just bid and will continue to stay bid as long as we are above the 1255.25 low for the year. The one x factor for this rally could be that the VIX is now above its 50 day m.a. and did not sell off much at all today. I will be watching the VIX closely. My daily pivot in the S&P is 1282.25. We closed above that today. The bulls are in control. We should trade up to 1299.50 if we can sustain trade above 1282.25.

Correction?

Not sure that I am in the camp of a correction in the market at this point. I believe that the market sold off due news in the Middle East. Until the market takes out opening range for the year at 125525 (which is also the low of the year) I am bullish. I felt that today the market should have went lower if this were a correction. The Dow only being down 166 is not that big of a deal. Depending on what news we have this weekend I believe in buying dips on Monday. I have been noticing that gold is fading the S&P this year. The opening range for the year in gold is the high. That is the exact opposite for the S&P. I will be watching to see what happens in gold. I believe that lower gold prices will be even more bullish for equities because it takes the risk out of a currency crisis. Even though everyone seems to be thinking that a weakening dollar will cause the stock market to rally, I would rather be watching gold. Gold is now trading like a currency. If gold takes out the high of the year what will happen with the stock market? I believe a new high in gold will be the reason to become bearish on equities. So until then, I am bullish.

Time

The market is just waiting for the new year so we can rally again. The quieter it gets the more likely we are to continue this up trend. The vix has been brutally beaten down to a mere 17. That is not good for shorts. Amazing how this is the best December since 1991. This is probably the slowest in even more years. This is also the smallest amount of short positions in the market in over 4 years. I have not been fading it but it is still hard to put together a good week. This market it just being manipulated to the upside. I am a Bull until any of the big moving averages are broken on the daily. Trade small and smart.

Waiting

The market is just sitting above all the major moving averages. This just tells me that we should continue on this uptrend. When they try to break them down there is just no one in a hurry to sell. The Bulls are in full control. Waiting for next year seems to be the trade that most traders are taking right now. If you are long this market why should you sell? I see no reason to be selling or getting short until we take out the 50 day moving average. Trade small and smart. Take minimal risk right now. No one is getting rich trading this market. If you make money in the morning, just go home and enjoy the rest of your day.

Bulls are Back

The market has now held it's 50 day moving average(green line) for three days in a row. The market is telling you that we are going higher. We are going to close above the 20 day moving average(blueline) as well. All signs that we will probably make new highs for the year. My next resistance area is 121725 in the mini. Above that we should trade up to 124450. Buying breaks for now.

Starting up Again

I am suddenly getting the urge to write about this market again. The action for the past few months has been so boring that I have lacked enthusiasm. That has changed. The market volume is picking up. I believe mostly because of all the crazy things happening in the precious metals along with commodities. Basically anything linked to the dollar trade. I see a very tricky next six months coming in stocks. Are we going to make new highs in the Dow? I don't think so. I believe that we will see a big rally that everyone wants followed by new slide back down. I believe that we are close to a top and I will post some charts coming up this week to prove my theory.

Bearish

The market basically has a double bottom for the year. I don't believe it. This market is just begging for longs to get in. I am bearish because at the end of everyday we sell off. That is the sign of a bear market. Not to mention there is no volume on any of these rallies. I am staying bearish as long as we stay below the 50 day m.a. on the S&P(115710). Today I have 107800 as my pivot. Above that is 109700 and below that is 105950. Selling rallies.

Bearish

The fact is the Bears are back and the Bulls are on the run. This trade is very scary and unpredictable. There could be another crash in the horizon. I say this because the market is trading scared like it did in 2008. When this starts to happen it is like a virus that takes hold of the market place. Until they get everybody out of the market, it cannot go back to normal trading. I believe they have to trade down to the low at 105600 in order to really see what this market is made of. The have to trade down there to prove to everybody that a flash crash is bullshit. The market really crashed and deserved to be at that price. Once this happens the market will resume to a technical trade, which I believe is Bearish. I am selling rallies until proven wrong. Resistance is 110525 and support is 108450. Below 108450 is 105600 and I believe it will happen fast.

Bearish

When the market sells off, it happens quickly and with high volume. This tells me that the market is in trouble. When all of the guys on CNBC are calling for 1300 in the S&P, I tend to get worried. Like I have said before, I will be selling rallies until we make a new high for the year. This market is in bearish mode until then. 115675 is resistance. My pivot is 112975. If we can stay above that area we will trade up to 115675 where I will be a seller. If we cannot hold that area we will trade down to 110275. Selling rallies.

Bearish

The market cannot close above 116025. We should trade down to 113200. If we fail there, then 110400 is next. This market acts like it wants to go higher and before you can blink they are selling off. The selling is coming late in the day which is a sign that they are going lower. Selling rallies until proven wrong.

Bearish

My pivot to the upside is 116025. If we trade above that then the market should trade up to 119000. I am not convinced of this rally. I believe that we will be in a trading range for awhile bearing any news. That range should be 116025 down to 107350. I feel that we are at the top of the current trading range. I am trading small and from the short side. I cannot believe in a stock market when Gold is running the way it is. People do not want to be invested in this stock market. I do not blame them. This is for professionals only. That means that we should trade technically in a range. There is nothing I believe that will push this market above the highs of the year.

Bearish

I am Bearish until this market makes a new high for the year. I believe that we have seen the top for the year and will be in trading range from here on out. There is so much intervention with every issue in the world. They just fix debt issues with more debt..... Debt on top of Debt. If another problem occurs what do they do then? They cannot spend anymore money because there is none. The futures are all over the place. Which tells me that the bears are back and they are taking control. When the VIX has moves like we have seen this week, that means everyone is scared and looking for protection. I am trading small taking advantage of volatility. Resistance is 117370 and support is 111200. My pivot to the upside is 114100. If we stay below that we should trade 111200.

Bearish

This is crazy..... That is all that I can say. What changed this market overnight. I believe that there is more than meets the eye. My guess is that some banks or one bank lost a lot of money and we have not heard the news yet. There has been nothing but selling. I cannot believe that Europe is the cause of this. We shall see. I am extremely bearish because the vix is exploding again and that is how it started the last free fall. Be careful and trade small.

Bearish

If the market cannot hold 116475 we should trade down to 114475. I feel that this will happen because this market is reaching a breaking point and the VIX is proof of this. When the VIX pops this hard and fast this usually means correction or change in trend. I believe that a change in trend could very easily be happening. I will be more of a believer if we trade below the 50 day m.a (116725) for more than 2 weeks. This will force most of the longs out of the market and give the power back to the shorts. I am selling rallies until they violate 116725.

Slightly Bearish

It is the end of the month. We have had a nice run up this month so look for some selling going into the close. Goldman Sachs is opening down 8 bucks this morning due to concerns of some lawsuits. This might be a lag on the market today. Also look out for news on the Greece bailout plan. That can happen at any time. I will be selling rallies in front of 121200 looking for a pullback to 119550. Above 121200 look for 121625. Trading small and selling rallies.

Slightly Bullish

This market takes all the bad news very well. This stock market should be on its ass but it is not. Earnings have been all around pretty good. The news with all the down grades from S&P on these countries has not taken us down that far. The S&P is still only 30 points from yearly highs. This morning I have 119525 as my pivot. If we stay above that we should trade up to 121200. If we can't stay above it we should trade back down to 117850. 117850 is my support area. If that area gets taken out I will be looking for 116150. This market is very volatile and overall the bulls are still in control. I will buying breaks while above 119525. Selling rallies below it.

Not Trading Until April 28

Slightly Bearish

The market has reached one of my resistance areas at 120675 and held for now. I am short small leaning on that area. If this area gets violated I have 121400 as resistance. This market is very hard to get in front of right now. There is light volume and the Bulls have had there way with it. I will be trading from the short side as long as we stay below 121400. I will be watching the volume very closely today. Along with the direction of the dollar. Right now the dollar is up and we are down. If the dollar stays strong today we should stay down on the day. Support is 118675.

Slightly Bullish

It seems like the higher we go the less volume we have. Yesterday was so anemic that I am seriously wondering where all of the traders are? It seems as though I should just be trading crude or commodities. The market wants to go higher and it does not care if volume comes in. We closed above 11000 in the Dow and we should continue on this rally. 120675 is Resistance in the S&P futures. That will be a big test to the upside. I am waiting for that test before I attempt to short this market. Support today is 118500. Trade small and buy breaks.

Slightly Bearish

The Dow has now gotten above the 11,000 mark that all of the fund managers have been waiting for. The question is what do we do now? I believe that you will see some volatility up here due to short covering and some longs taking profits. If we close above it today look for this market to extend the rally for the next couple days. Resistance in S&P is 120675 and support is 117475.