Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Sunday, June 26, 2011
The week ahead 6/27 - 7/1
Last week was a wild ride for the market. The S&P cash tested and held their 200 day m.a. (for the 2nd time) and on that same day we had a positive rumor about the Greek bailout (or whatever you want to call it) soaring the market higher making it appear that to those who bought at or in front of the S&P's 200 day m.a. were going to look like geniuses (impressive how positive rumors come out at important technical levels). We had a 22.00 point rally off of the 200 day m.a. This rally also brought the NASDAQ futures back above their 200 day m.a. Giving us signs that we may have a possible short term bottom. With Dow Industrials and Transports remaining strong I thought that this could be the case, but after Fridays action I am not so sure. Traders were selling into the close making it appear that no one wanted to go home long into the weekend. All the major Indices closed near their lows of the day (bearish action).
Going into this week I will be watching the overnight trade carefully to see if Friday was just traders closing out their longs before the weekend or if this is something else. I have been saying for awhile now that although the market has been trading weak for the past 2 months no major long term support has yet been broken in the S&P or Dow. I have been saying that our leader is the Dow and I am sticking with that. The Dow Industrials are currently 158 points away from testing their 200 day m.a. (11,776) and 379 points away from their low for the year (11,555). Until the Dow takes out its 200 day m.a. (11,776) and then makes a new low for the year I am not sure that the primary trend of the market has turned bearish. I believe in the Dow Theory for the primary trend of the market (this is not my only tool but an important one). So until the Dow Transports (4,906) and Industrials (11,555) start making new lows for the year at the same time I am not convinced that the primary trend of this market has turned bearish. Going into Monday I think the 200 day m.a. (1263.40) in the S&P will determine the direction for the week. If we can sustain trade above it then I think you will see a rally testing last weeks highs. If we cannot hold the 200 day m.a. in the S&P then I think you could see a sharp sell off in the markets and we will probably test the lows of the year in all of the major Indices. This is where the true test of this market will come. See charts below for more insight on the week ahead.
Going into this week I will be watching the overnight trade carefully to see if Friday was just traders closing out their longs before the weekend or if this is something else. I have been saying for awhile now that although the market has been trading weak for the past 2 months no major long term support has yet been broken in the S&P or Dow. I have been saying that our leader is the Dow and I am sticking with that. The Dow Industrials are currently 158 points away from testing their 200 day m.a. (11,776) and 379 points away from their low for the year (11,555). Until the Dow takes out its 200 day m.a. (11,776) and then makes a new low for the year I am not sure that the primary trend of the market has turned bearish. I believe in the Dow Theory for the primary trend of the market (this is not my only tool but an important one). So until the Dow Transports (4,906) and Industrials (11,555) start making new lows for the year at the same time I am not convinced that the primary trend of this market has turned bearish. Going into Monday I think the 200 day m.a. (1263.40) in the S&P will determine the direction for the week. If we can sustain trade above it then I think you will see a rally testing last weeks highs. If we cannot hold the 200 day m.a. in the S&P then I think you could see a sharp sell off in the markets and we will probably test the lows of the year in all of the major Indices. This is where the true test of this market will come. See charts below for more insight on the week ahead.
(200 day m.a., 50 day m.a., 20 day m.a., 10 day m.a., and unchanged for the year is green horizontal line.)
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| $ES_F |
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| SPX |
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| DJI |
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| DJT |
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| $NQ_F |
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Sunday, June 19, 2011
The week ahead 6/20 - 6/24
Last week the S&P cash tested and held its 200 day moving average, the Nasdaq 100 futures failed to hold their 200 day moving average and closed below it while the Nasdaq 100 cash closed on the low of the week right at its 200 day m.a., and the Dow Industrials are about 275 points away from testing their 200 day moving average. The question is...who is right? The Nasdaq is the weak one, the Dow Industrials are the strong one and the S&P is right in the middle. Who is the leader? The market always has a leader but the trick is identifying that leader. This recent sell off was led by the Nasdaq, but the rally over the past 2 years has been led by the Dow. So for right now I am sticking with the one that has been right for 2 years and not for 2 months and that is the Dow.
Until the Dow violates and closes below its 200 day moving average or has a Dow Theory confirmation reversing the primary trend to bearish, this recent sell off is nothing more than a correction.Although I am sticking with the Dow as the leader the bulls desperately need the Nasdaq 100 futures need to get back above their 200 day moving average or you could see the S&P cash dip back down to test its 200 day moving average which could shake out a lot of the longs and thus force the Dow to test theirs.
This week I believe that a lot of traders are looking for consolidation or an oversold bounce. My eyes will be on the Nasdaq to help me determine whether or not this bounce or consolidation will occur. If the Nasdaq can start the week off with a rally then you should see buyers coming in and taking the other markets higher across the board. If the Nasdaq cannot stay positive from last weeks close then you could will see a retest of the 200 day moving in the S&P cash and possibly a violation. This should then force a true test of the market and we will see if the Dow can hold its 200 day moving average or if we have a Dow Theory confirmation. This will be the deciding factor for the market to move forward in which ever direction that may be.
To read my day to day thoughts on the market please go to www.eminiexecutors.com and sign up for The Morning Brief.
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| SPX |
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| DJI |
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| DJT |
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| NASDAQ 100 CASH |
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| VIX |
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Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Sunday, June 12, 2011
The week ahead 6/13 - 6/17
So far the S&P cash has had a 7.46% correction from the May high at 1370.58 to last weeks low at 1268.28. What to look for from here? To answer that question I go to the charts.
Although this may feel like the primary trend of the market has turned bearish we have not broken any long term support levels yet. I know that we are trading below the 50 day moving averages in all of the markets but that is not enough to say that the primary trend of the market has turned bearish. Right now my major focus will be watching the trend line (in all of the major markets) from the 2009 lows and their 200 day moving averages. I will also be looking out for a Dow Theory confirmation; it is when Dow Industrials and Transports take out their lows for the year at the same time (DJI 11,555 & DJT 4,906). This would turn the primary trend of the market bearish.
Currently the Dow Industrials remain the strongest market because they are farthest from their 2011 lows and also farthest from their trend line. The S&P is next followed by the Dow Transports and then the Nasdaq remains the weakest. The Nasdaq 100 cash market is in arms length of its 200 day m.a. while the other markets still have a little ways to go.
To start the week the most important chart is the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq 100 cash can hold it's 200 day moving average (2,215.77) then I believe you will see a rally in the market. Also keep an eye on the Dow Transports. They are getting close to their trend line from 2009 lows (5,034) and their 200 day moving average (5,003). If either of these two markets takes out their 200 day moving average or trend line that would send a bearish message to the other markets, and we could see a sell off in the other markets looking to test their levels. If both the Nasdaq and Transports hold then I believe this will add confidence to the market and we will see a positive week.
Below are daily charts showing the trend lines from the 2009 lows and their 200 day moving averages (pink line).
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Although this may feel like the primary trend of the market has turned bearish we have not broken any long term support levels yet. I know that we are trading below the 50 day moving averages in all of the markets but that is not enough to say that the primary trend of the market has turned bearish. Right now my major focus will be watching the trend line (in all of the major markets) from the 2009 lows and their 200 day moving averages. I will also be looking out for a Dow Theory confirmation; it is when Dow Industrials and Transports take out their lows for the year at the same time (DJI 11,555 & DJT 4,906). This would turn the primary trend of the market bearish.
Currently the Dow Industrials remain the strongest market because they are farthest from their 2011 lows and also farthest from their trend line. The S&P is next followed by the Dow Transports and then the Nasdaq remains the weakest. The Nasdaq 100 cash market is in arms length of its 200 day m.a. while the other markets still have a little ways to go.
To start the week the most important chart is the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq 100 cash can hold it's 200 day moving average (2,215.77) then I believe you will see a rally in the market. Also keep an eye on the Dow Transports. They are getting close to their trend line from 2009 lows (5,034) and their 200 day moving average (5,003). If either of these two markets takes out their 200 day moving average or trend line that would send a bearish message to the other markets, and we could see a sell off in the other markets looking to test their levels. If both the Nasdaq and Transports hold then I believe this will add confidence to the market and we will see a positive week.
Below are daily charts showing the trend lines from the 2009 lows and their 200 day moving averages (pink line).
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| $SPX |
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| $DJI |
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| $NDX |
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| $DJT |
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| $VIX |
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Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Video from June 8th Q&A
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Sunday, June 5, 2011
The week ahead 6/06 - 6/10
Recently I have been talking about the stars aligning for a correction. We have had three consecutive weeks of bad ecomnonmic data and all of the major indices are now failing to hold their 50 day moving averages. Some experts believe that 150 day (1287.28) and 200 (1248.04) day moving areas are the most important but you cannot ignore the fact that we cannot stay above the 50 day. Bad economic data and a breakdown of technicals usually equals a correction. The market has been so strong up to this point that it had to take both bad data and technicals to take this market lower. A 5% corrrection in the S&P was 1302.05 and now eyes are on a 10% correction that would be 1233.52. Will that happen? At this point I don't see why not. Here are some factors why this could happen; through March the S&P had a high of 1344.07 and then made a low of 1249.05. From that low on March 16th we rallied to new highs on May 1st (1370.58). We made a new high by 26.51. My theory is if we can do it on the upside then it could happen on the downside. A lot of times the market will make a new high or low by the same amount that it did in the other direction. That would mean if we continue to stay weak and make a new low, the new low could be made by 26.51 points which would put the S&P at 1222.54 just below a 10% correction at 1233.52.
Looking ahead to this week. The past few weeks we have had different leaders in the market. The Dow Industrials and Dow Transports were by far the strongest while the Nasdaq was the weakest, leaving the S&P in the middle. That has now changed; the Dow Industrials took out their May low and had a near double bottom from April. The Dow Transports also took out the May low but came up short of the April low. The Nasdaq has not yet taken out its April low, leaving it the least weak market. The S&P is the most important market and and they are almost as weak as the Dow markets because they have also taken out their May low. Going into Monday the selling pressure will accelerate if the Nasdaq takes out their May low (2250.25) and if the VIX takes out its April high (20.03). If they both hold these areas then I will be less aggressive with my selling and could possibly be a small buyer. I will be looking at my S&P charts along with the other markets for confirmation to either side. We are in the middle of rollover so expect to see some violent moves up and down.
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Looking ahead to this week. The past few weeks we have had different leaders in the market. The Dow Industrials and Dow Transports were by far the strongest while the Nasdaq was the weakest, leaving the S&P in the middle. That has now changed; the Dow Industrials took out their May low and had a near double bottom from April. The Dow Transports also took out the May low but came up short of the April low. The Nasdaq has not yet taken out its April low, leaving it the least weak market. The S&P is the most important market and and they are almost as weak as the Dow markets because they have also taken out their May low. Going into Monday the selling pressure will accelerate if the Nasdaq takes out their May low (2250.25) and if the VIX takes out its April high (20.03). If they both hold these areas then I will be less aggressive with my selling and could possibly be a small buyer. I will be looking at my S&P charts along with the other markets for confirmation to either side. We are in the middle of rollover so expect to see some violent moves up and down.
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Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Sunday, May 29, 2011
The week ahead 5/31 - 6/03
Lets start with what last week meant for the market. We started the week on a negative note with the major markets all opening lower flirting with their 50 day moving averages. On Monday the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq had all violated and closed below their 50 day moving averages. Leaving the Dow Transports alone above their 50 day moving average. To confirm the weakness of the market the VIX had a spike above its 200 day moving average signaling that protection was being bought. All signs pointed to a bloody week and a possible correction underway. Tuesday and Wednesday were both weak days but with light volume and no panic selling. I was a little surprised. The major markets have been flirting with their 50 day moving averages for months and this was the third leg down which usually means you will see some panic selling but you didn't. I had noticed the same old story that I have been telling my subscribers all year; the VIX had a big spike up and then slowly drifted back down. The VIX cannot hold a rally and the market is telling us that it will not break with a weak VIX. The other market to be watching is the Dow Transports. They remained strong by holding their 50 day moving average and daily uptrend. This has worked all year. When the market has a weak VIX and one of the other major markets (S&P,Dow Industrials, Nasdaq, or Dow Transports) is strong then no panic selling, no correction! All of the stars have to align to bring this market down and we have not yet seen that.
Looking forward to this week; the weakest market continues to be the Nasdaq failing to close above their 50 day moving average unlike the others. They are the leader to the downside. Intra day when I get sell signals from my strategy I will first look at the Nasdaq to see how they are trading. This will help me decide how short I really want to be. If the Nasdaq confirms the strength of the other markets by closing above their 50 day moving average I will be laying off on my shorts and be more aggressive with my longs. The S&P, Dow Industrials and Dow Transports all closed above their 50 day moving averages remaining strong just awaiting confirmation from the Nasdaq. Also keep an eye on the extremely weak VIX. If the VIX continues to stay weak, stay with your longs but if it starts to grind higher with the Nasdaq still below its 50 day, then maybe the shorts have a chance after all. Also note that Tuesday is the last day of the month so watch for big orders on the close and expect a choppy trade because we are now heading into rollover.
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Looking forward to this week; the weakest market continues to be the Nasdaq failing to close above their 50 day moving average unlike the others. They are the leader to the downside. Intra day when I get sell signals from my strategy I will first look at the Nasdaq to see how they are trading. This will help me decide how short I really want to be. If the Nasdaq confirms the strength of the other markets by closing above their 50 day moving average I will be laying off on my shorts and be more aggressive with my longs. The S&P, Dow Industrials and Dow Transports all closed above their 50 day moving averages remaining strong just awaiting confirmation from the Nasdaq. Also keep an eye on the extremely weak VIX. If the VIX continues to stay weak, stay with your longs but if it starts to grind higher with the Nasdaq still below its 50 day, then maybe the shorts have a chance after all. Also note that Tuesday is the last day of the month so watch for big orders on the close and expect a choppy trade because we are now heading into rollover.
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| E-mini S&P |
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| E-mini Nasdaq |
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| DJT |
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| VIX |
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Q&A with Emini Executors for May 25
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Sunday, May 22, 2011
What to look for on Monday
I have been a bull and been buying support more aggressively than selling resistance. With the market selling off with high volume on a Friday afternoon this is a concern for the longs and could cause me to lay off on buying this break. The S&P closed on its low while the VIX closed on its high. This is bearish action and if you are long you don't like seeing that going into the weekend. This just means that traders were not comfortable going home with their longs in the S&P and the VIX rally told me that they bought protection. The VIX has been all over the map lately sending everyone mixed signals. Going into Monday the main area that I will be watching in the VIX is the 50 day m.a. at 17.88. If we can stay below it then I will continue to buy breaks even with the weak close in the S&P but if we can't then I will be more aggressive with my selling. The Dow Industrials have been acting so strong and have been leading the market to the upside. This week they failed to test their down trend off the recent highs and closed below their 10 and 20 day m.a.'s. This is also bearish action and a concern for the longs. The Dow could now be looking to test its 50 day m.a. at 12,383. The Dow did not test its 50 day m.a. last week while the S&P and NASDAQ did. I first believed that this action was bullish and the market would be looking at new highs but I am now thinking that the Dow Industrials might have to test their 50 day m.a. first. With the weak closes in the big three (Dow Inustrials, S&P and NASDAQ) the Dow Transports remain looking strong. If the Transports start to fail at their 10 and 20 day m.a.'s then this would indicate weakness across the board and the longs should in be in trouble. On Monday keep an eye on the VIX and the Transports to help you with your execution.
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| E-mini daily chart |
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| Dow Industrials daily chart |
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| E-mini Nasdaq daily chart |
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| VIX daily chart |
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| Dow Transports daily chart |
Thursday, May 19, 2011
The beginning of the E-mini's and emotions
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The bull market continues.
Yesterday and today were important for technical traders. Bulls win and I don't mean Chicago Bulls. We tested and held the 50 day m.a. We also tested and held the trend channel on a daily cash chart. This area was very important for the bull market to continue. Today in my morning brief I told my subscribers that the bulls are still in control of this trade. This means that we continue to hold key areas of support and the market continues to reward the longs when they buy these key technical areas. The question that everyone asks me is how long will this continue? I say the same thing to everyone that asks this question "it will continue until it doesn't." Right now the market continues to hold areas of support so continue with the trend, don't fade it. I know that sounds vague and disappointing to most people but that is the truth. This is why we need technical analysis to help us in our trading. When the market continues to reward you for what is working then why do people always want to fade it and see a change of direction. What I have learned over the years is not to make bold predictions but to allow things to happen until they prove you otherwise. Always trade with a free mind and execute according to what is working in the current environment. Let the market dictate your trades. To answer the question about when the bull market end; when the market fails to hold key support levels and there is high volume selling below those key support levels, then you will know that sentiment has turned bearish.www.eminiexecutors.com 877-470-2430 info@eminiexecutors.com
Live Streaming at 1ET
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Monday, May 16, 2011
NQ - ES spread signaled to be short.
This morning I wrote in my morning brief that it looked like it was going to be a bearish day with the Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, and S&P poised to open below their daily uptrend. On the cash open the S&P started to sell off along with the Industrials, NASDAQ, and Transports following suit. The VIX started to rally higher looking to test its 50 day m.a. All signs pointed down. With all of that being said, the S&P made a low of 1328.00 and then took off to the upside getting back above its daily uptrend while the VIX turned back down on its belly. The S&P led the major indices higher while the NASDAQ lagged. It seemed as though the shorts might get blasted again but the S&P ended up making a good technical high at 1341.25, the 10 day m.a. We were also only 2.25 points above my daily pivot at 1339.00 and I noticed that NASDAQ-S&P spread was remaining weak. This daily spread chart had several tops around 1060.50 and I had noticed that back in February the spread failed from that area and the S&P was pulled down by the sudden weakness in the NASDAQ. When the spread failed to hold this same area again and the NASDAQ was lagging the S&P in the morning rally that was the confirmation to stick with selling the S&P.www.eminiexecutors.com 877-470-2430 info@eminiexecutors.com
Monday, May 9, 2011
Are true traders educating?
I am writing this post due to my frustrations with the lack of true E-mini traders out there teaching people how to become professional traders. The amount of disrespect I am seeing from traders claiming to be professionals or the biggest traders from their pit (which I know for a fact that they weren't even in the top 100) really pisses me off. If they actually got hit on a big trade I am not sure that they would even know what to do with it. The top traders from the S&P pit are either retired or trading on screens, not teaching people how to trade E-mini's. There are a few big traders still in the pit, but they are just passing time. I talk to all of my friends from the pit and they say the same thing to me over and over, "the lack of volume in the pit does not allow us to be players anymore, the E-mini has completely taken over". The biggest players on the street are all E-mini traders. Lets face it, E-mini traders have dominated the market over the past few years not pit traders. Yet a lot of people who have big followings for education on E-mini trading are guys who have made money as pit traders (or at least claim that they have) and decided to make money teaching people how to trade E-mini's. These guys couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag on the E-mini but they claim that they are professional E-mini traders. Don't get me wrong, many of the concepts from pit trading apply to screen, but E-mini trading is an entirely different animal. Don't even get me started on the guys that traded E-mini's for a year or two and made a few bucks then start a company based on their past success. They had a 6 month run in trading E-mini's and then suddenly they become an expert. The only thing they are is lucky. They now make more money selling b.s. strategies on how to trade on the screen. They don't talk about mindset, approach, a complete trading plan or even as basic as a morning routine to get yourself prepared for the day. They just believe that strategy is the answer and leave out the most important part, the mindset. The mindset is what gives you the ability to execute a strategy without hesitation. It leaves emotion at home where it belongs. I guess more power to them if people are buying it, but i'm not buying it. I know what it takes to have a career in trading and that takes more than 6 months to figure that out. I have been in this business for 15 years, trading for over 13, and I still struggle at times. No matter how good you are there are times where you just don't have it. The key is to recognize this and limit it. I am involving myself in the education business to really help people become successful at the greatest job on earth. My passion is trading. Everyday that I can sit in front of the screen and trade it is a privilege. I often wonder if any of these so called education guys even have accounts that they trade for themselves? Do they even trade everyday? I doubt all of the above.
I don't want to totally bash the education business and I will definitely give props to some of the education guys out there, but for the most part they are all salesmen. As far as I am concerned a professional trader and educator is someone who pays their bills with the money that they make from trading, not educating. 90% of my income comes from trading not teaching. Teaching people how to trade gives me great satisfaction and I take it very serious. Teaching people how to trade is all about giving people a chance to truly become successful, not telling them where to point and click. It all starts by giving them the correct mindset and proper trading plan. I wish that I would have been able sit down with a trader that was successful and learn how to trade directly from them. It would have saved me a lot of time, money and pain. I still believe that no matter who teaches you how to trade that you will have months of growing pains. I have been around some of the most talented futures traders ever to put on a jacket and it still took them time to become successful. The best advice I was ever given by a trader was "99% of people who try to become traders fail, learn to be the 1%". I learned that the one thing that they all had in common was passion to be great and a trading plan that promoted growth, not limitations. I have spent countless hours in front of my screens learning strategies and creating rules trying to put together a trading plan that would put me in that 1%. I have accomplished that but it is still a constant challenge to maintain it. Although I have had more heartbreaks and struggles than I wish to remember, I would't trade it for the world. Trading has taught me many life lessons and given me the freedom to live the life that I always wanted. I remember the first four years of my trading career when I must have been told to quit over a hundred times. Quitting wasn't the answer - instead I taught myself to become the 1%.
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I don't want to totally bash the education business and I will definitely give props to some of the education guys out there, but for the most part they are all salesmen. As far as I am concerned a professional trader and educator is someone who pays their bills with the money that they make from trading, not educating. 90% of my income comes from trading not teaching. Teaching people how to trade gives me great satisfaction and I take it very serious. Teaching people how to trade is all about giving people a chance to truly become successful, not telling them where to point and click. It all starts by giving them the correct mindset and proper trading plan. I wish that I would have been able sit down with a trader that was successful and learn how to trade directly from them. It would have saved me a lot of time, money and pain. I still believe that no matter who teaches you how to trade that you will have months of growing pains. I have been around some of the most talented futures traders ever to put on a jacket and it still took them time to become successful. The best advice I was ever given by a trader was "99% of people who try to become traders fail, learn to be the 1%". I learned that the one thing that they all had in common was passion to be great and a trading plan that promoted growth, not limitations. I have spent countless hours in front of my screens learning strategies and creating rules trying to put together a trading plan that would put me in that 1%. I have accomplished that but it is still a constant challenge to maintain it. Although I have had more heartbreaks and struggles than I wish to remember, I would't trade it for the world. Trading has taught me many life lessons and given me the freedom to live the life that I always wanted. I remember the first four years of my trading career when I must have been told to quit over a hundred times. Quitting wasn't the answer - instead I taught myself to become the 1%.
www.eminiexecutors.com 877-470-2430 info@eminiexecutors.com
Friday, May 6, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
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