Monday, January 16, 2012
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Headlines and technicals continue to fight it out...
We are trading a headline driven market that is also in the midst of a major technical battle. The headlines change intraday almost like an indicator on a chart and while that is going on the long term technicals of this market are shifting from bullish to bearish on a day to day basis. As a day trader this is usually a great thing when there is massive confusion from day to day but right now I would just like to see who is really in control of this market, the bulls or the bears? I still think that the bulls have more going for them on the technical side but the current headline risk I think favors the bears.
The Nasdaq 100 futures and Dow Industrials remain in positive territory for the year and continue to sustain trade above their 200 day moving averages. They are the leaders to the upside and with any help from the other Indices they look like they could make yearly highs in a short amount of time. The Transports continue to try and push through their 200 day moving average (4,983) and get into positive territory for the year (5,106). If they can get back above these areas then I think that the bulls will be very happy and then all eyes will be on the S&P cash.
The S&P cash has been struggling mightily to get through their 200 day moving average. I think this has been the biggest weight on this market (technically). They have been brushing up against it for weeks and even broken through it intraday, but no luck holding or closing above it. I think that right now the bulls are at the mercy of the S&P cash. If they cannot push through their 200 day moving average I think that the entire market will selloff. If they can push through it then I think that the bulls will have full control of this trade on a technical basis and we could see a nice rally into the end of the year barring any negative headlines that may arise.
If you would like to experience a day in our Trading Room where you can listen to my live commentary on the markets please click here. Have a great week of trading and Happy Holidays!
The Nasdaq 100 futures and Dow Industrials remain in positive territory for the year and continue to sustain trade above their 200 day moving averages. They are the leaders to the upside and with any help from the other Indices they look like they could make yearly highs in a short amount of time. The Transports continue to try and push through their 200 day moving average (4,983) and get into positive territory for the year (5,106). If they can get back above these areas then I think that the bulls will be very happy and then all eyes will be on the S&P cash.
The S&P cash has been struggling mightily to get through their 200 day moving average. I think this has been the biggest weight on this market (technically). They have been brushing up against it for weeks and even broken through it intraday, but no luck holding or closing above it. I think that right now the bulls are at the mercy of the S&P cash. If they cannot push through their 200 day moving average I think that the entire market will selloff. If they can push through it then I think that the bulls will have full control of this trade on a technical basis and we could see a nice rally into the end of the year barring any negative headlines that may arise.
If you would like to experience a day in our Trading Room where you can listen to my live commentary on the markets please click here. Have a great week of trading and Happy Holidays!
CHART INFORMATION
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summer’s range) , Light Blue (Highs/Lows of importance).
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| $SPX |
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| $SPY |
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| $DJIA |
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| $DJT |
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| $NQ_F |
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| $VIX |
www.eminiexecutors.com 800-257-0733 info@eminiexecutors.com
Sunday, December 4, 2011
December Newsletter 2011
Europe, Europe, Europe. The markets are being driven by the headlines regarding the debt crisis in Europe. I cannot remember a time in my career when the markets are moving so dramatically based on headlines coming from governments on a day to day basis. The market is moving so fiercely off of these headlines that it is shaking people out on both sides of the market. Some, actually most of the time these headlines do not even change or fix the problems that we are having in Europe.
In the first part of November the bulls were looking to take control of this trade and take the market higher into the end of the year. The middle part of November was all about the bears coming back and reminding everybody that they have not yet given up. The last part of November the bulls came charging back with a hundred point rally in the E-mini futures in just four days leaving the month of November basically unchanged (down fractionally). Most of this action was driven by headlines and now we are back at the prices where the battles between the bulls and the bears have been taking place over the last couple of months.
As a technical trader I cannot predict what the headlines will be in the future so I rely on the technicals to help me determine the next move of the market. When the headlines come out I watch to see if the headlines coincide with the technicals or if they collide with the technicals. When the headlines coincide with the technicals we see the biggest moves…when the headlines collide with the technicals we see a choppy trade. Once the market digests the headlines I use the technicals to determine whether or not damage was done to either side or if one side takes control. At the moment the headlines are starting to favor the bulls but overall they have been in favor the bears. I think that the headlines will remain back and forth, but if they start to get consistent to one side then I will be watching to see how it affects the markets technicals.
The technicals; the Nasdaq 100 futures are now trading above all of their major moving averages and back in the top part of this year’s range, that is bullish action. I think that as long as the Nasdaq can sustain trade above their 200 day moving average they will try and lead this market higher. The Dow Industrials are also trading above all of their major moving averages but not quite as strong as the Nasdaq. Although the Dow is not quite as strong as the Nasdaq I feel the same way about the Dow; as long as the Dow can sustain trade above their 200 day moving average I think that they will try and lead this market higher. The Transports recently broke their daily down trend and tested their 200 day moving average. They are still in negative territory for the year but if they can get back above their 200 day moving average that will be good news for the bulls. If they cannot get back above their 200 day moving average then that may weigh on the market and we could see another selloff across the board. The S&P (futures, cash, SPY) are just coming off a retest of their 200 day moving averages and unchanged for the year. This has been a major road block for the bulls. If the S&P cannot sustain trade in positive territory for the year and get back above their 200 day moving average I think that this rally could be short lived. If they can get through this area then I think that we will see a rally across the board into the end of the year.
If you would like to experience a day in our Trading Room where you can listen to my live commentary on the markets please click here. Have a great month of trading and Happy Holidays!
| Year to date range | 295.81 | November Settlement | 1246.96 |
| Year to date % Loss as of 11/30/11 | -0.85% | November % Loss | -0.50% |
| Novembers Range | 118.89 | November High | 1277.55 |
| Average daily range | 24.04 | November Low | 1158.66 |
| Yearly High 5/02/2011 | 1370.58 |
| Yearly Low 10/04/2011 | 1074.77 |
| 2010 Closing Price | 1257.64 |
| 2011 Opening Price | 1257.62 |
Chart Information
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summer’s range) , Light Blue (Highs/Lows of importance).
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| $SPX |
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| $ES_F |
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| $DJIA |
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| $DJT |
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| $NQ_F |
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| $VIX |
www.eminiexecutors.com 800-257-0733 info@eminiexecutors.com
Sunday, November 27, 2011
The market has been unraveling...
The market has been unraveling. Ever since the S&P crossed back below their 150 day smooth moving average the market has been in a downward spiral. The bears are back in control of this trade. The S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Transports are all trading below their major moving averages and in negative territory for the year. All of the Indices are also trading in the middle of this summers’ range which puts the bottom of that range in play (the lows of the year). As long as the markets remain in this summer’s range I think that the lows of the year are in play.
I talk about this all of the time; when the news and the technicals collide we have a battle….when the news and the technicals coincide we have the biggest moves. Europe has obviously weighed on the U.S. markets. Where the U.S. markets are priced right now “technically” gives the bears complete control of this trade. Right now the market tells me that we could be in store for a big move lower due to the negative headlines and the breakdown in technicals. If the news starts to get better and we see a rally; the key will be if we can crossover the major moving averages and sustain trade above them. In the past six months we have not seen that happen and until it does I think that all of the rallies will be met by big sellers.
This week will be a very interesting week for the market. If the market rallies then I think that we could see some bulls step in and try to give the market a little push higher possibly trying to retest some major moving averages (which I think will be met with strong sellers). If we continue to selloff then I think that we could see some panic selling come in and we may have another bad week for stocks. The bears have all of the momentum with the headlines and technicals going their way. That means I will be more aggressive selling rallies (barring any good news from Europe) and very nimble when buying breaks. Have a great week!
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summers range), Light Blue (Old highs that could be tested)
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| $SPX |
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| $ES_F |
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| $SPY |
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| $DJIA |
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| $DJT |
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| $NQ_F |
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| $VIX |
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| Market Profile single ticks |
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| Market Profile daily single ticks |
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| Market Profile daily single ticks |
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| Market Profile daily single ticks |
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Sunday, November 20, 2011
The bears continue to battle with the bulls.
The bears continue to battle with the bulls. Last week was a good week for the bears. The headlines about Europe continue to pressure the longs and we are now starting to see technical damage being done. Up until last week the bulls were looking pretty good despite the negative headlines. Now we are seeing the technicals start to break down and they could soon be looking to favor the bears.
The Nasdaq 100 futures which had been trading above their 200 day and 50 day moving average for over a month. They now have had two consecutive days with closes below both moving averages (bearish action). The Nasdaq has been the leader to the upside and when the leader starts to have bearish action that is not good for the rest of the market. As long as the Nasdaq remains below their 200 day and 50 day moving averages I think that we will continue to see selling pressure on the market.
The Dow has been chopping around its 200 day moving average for weeks and as of right now they are trading below it. The Dow still remains above the rest of their major moving averages and is still in positive territory for the year (11,577). If the Dow cannot get back above their 200 day moving average within the next day or so I think that the market will take that as a negative and we could see the Dow slip lower looking to retest some of their major moving averages and unchanged for the year.
The S&P (cash, futures, SPY) are now trading in between their 150 day smooth moving average and their 50 day moving average. With the momentum now being to the downside; they need to get back above their 150 day smooth moving averages sooner than later or I think that the 50 day moving averages will be tested. If the 50 day moving averages are broken then I think that the market will see a sharp selloff. If they can hold their 50 day moving averages then I think that we could see the market firm up and work its way higher.
The Transports have been the weakest market over the past several months and on this recent break there was no real technical damage done. Last week they tested and held their150 day smooth moving average. If the Transports can sustain trade above their 150 day smooth moving average then we may see equities start to work their way back up. If they cannot hold their 150 day smooth moving average then I think that we could see the market continue to selloff.
With all that is going on with Europe I will be watching the technicals extremely close. When the headlines and the technicals collide we see a battle, but when they start to work together we see the biggest moves.
CHARTS
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summers range), Light Blue (Old highs that could be tested)
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| $SPX |
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| $SPY |
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| $DJIA |
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| $NQ_F |
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| $VIX |
www.eminiexecutors.com 800-257-0733 info@eminiexecutors.com
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Thoughts on the current market and the week ahead... 11/14 - 11/18
Last week's battle was won by the bulls but the war has yet to be determined. The headlines remain in favor of the bears but the technicals are in favor of the bulls. That is what is creating this war. At some point in the near future I think that we could see a sharp move in one direction. As of right now I am thinking that move will be higher. For all of the bad news that we have seen in the past month(s) the market is not in bad shape.
The Nasdaq (100 futures) remain the strongest market by sustaining trade above their 200 day moving average and at the top part of their yearly range. If the Nasdaq can get above their weekly high at 2408.75 I think that they will make new highs of the year rather quickly (2435.50).
The Dow is also remaining strong. On Friday the Dow closed back above their 200 day moving average and they are now about 720 points away from their high of the year.
This week the S&P (futures, cash, SPY) all held an important test of their 150 day smooth moving average. They all basically had a double bottom at their 150 day smooth moving averages and now are comfortably above it. Although that is bullish action I am still not convinced the bulls are in control of the S&P. The S&P (futures, cash, SPY) are all in positive territory for the year (just barely) and they all look like they want to test their 200 day moving averages and daily down trends. If they can close above their 200 day moving averages and daily down trends then I thinks that the bulls will have control.
The Transports are still the weak link in the chain but they are showing signs of strength. They too (like the S&P) held a test of their 150 day smooth moving average and as of right now they are at their daily down trend and 200 day moving average. If they can close above that area the only thing left for them to accomplish would be getting back into positive territory for the year. If that happens then I think that bulls will have complete control over the market and we could see a nice rally.
If the headlines about Europe's debt crisis can turn positive (not sure if that is possible) I think that the market could be set up for a nice year end rally. If the headlines get worse I will be watching to see if the technicals break down for the bulls. If that happens then I think that we could sell off into the end of the year. If nothing happens and its the same old headlines, then I think that we go higher.
CHARTS
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summers range), Light Blue (Old highs that could be tested)
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| $DJIA |
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| $SPX |
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| $DJT |
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| $NQ_F |
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| $VIX |
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| $SPY |
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| Market Profile single ticks from Friday's trade. $ES_F |
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Sunday, November 6, 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Thoughts on the current market and the week ahead. 10/31 - 11/04
What a week for the bulls. They accomplished pretty much everything that they wanted to. The Dow is trading comfortably above their 200 day moving average and is in positive territory for the year by 650 points (not to mention they violated their August high), the Nasdaq futures remain the strongest market and are getting within striking distance of their yearly highs ($NQ_F hi-2435.50), the S&P cash took out their daily down trend and closed above their 200 day moving average for two consecutive days (that is great news for the bulls), the VIX is trading well below 30.00 (the bulls have been waiting for that to finally happen), and the only weak link that I can see (technically) are the Transports. The Transports are struggling to hold above their 200 day moving average and they are the only major Index that remains in negative territory for the year.
In order for this rally to continue I think that the Transports have to hold above their 200 day moving at 5,022 and eventually work their way into positive territory for the year (5,106). If they cannot, then I think that we will see the rest of the market soften and start to work its way lower retesting support areas. I think that the Transports are crucial because they were the leader on the way down and I think that in order for the market to continue its run higher they need the weakest link (Transports) to turn strong.
This week I will be focusing on the Transports and how the rest of the market reacts to what they are doing. If the Transports remain below their 200 day moving average at 5,022 I will be more inclined to sell rallies in the S&P. If the Transports can hold above their 200 day moving average, then I will be a buyer of breaks and be looking for the S&P cash to test their August high at 1307.38 and the E-mini futures to test their August high at 1309.75. I expect some resistance at the August highs but if the Transports are in positive territory for the year (5,106), I will be a cautious seller of the S&P. If the S&P gets above their August high then I think that we could see another pop in equities across the board.
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summers range), Light Blue (Old highs that could be tested)
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| $SPX |
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| $ES_F |
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| $SPY |
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| $DJIA |
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| $DJT |
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| $NQ_F |
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| $VIX |
www.eminiexecutors.com 239-594-6876 info@eminiexecutors.com
Sunday, October 23, 2011
The week ahead 10/24 - 10/28
The bulls are in full control of this trade. The Transports are back above their 150 day smooth moving average, the S&P has broken out of its two month range and is also trading back above their 150 day smooth moving average, the Dow is comfortably back in positive territory for the year, and the Nasdaq continues to rally sustaining trade above all of their major moving averages. The only thorn in the side of the bulls is the VIX. If the VIX continues to hold above 30.00 that may stall this rally.
For the past several months news has been the main driver in this market. It has been about Dodd Frank, downgrades of U.S. debt, debt ceiling, the Eurozone debt crisis, etc...... Now the market seems to be looking past the news and focusing more on the technicals.
I have seen the market trade like this before......bad news forces everybody to think that the market will remain weak and traders think that we are range bound. This keeps everybody away from buying stocks. The next thing you know we are rallying to new highs and nobody is in (riding the wall of worry). I am not sure that we are going to make new highs but I do think that the trend could remain bullish into the end of the year.
What I will be looking for this week.....
As long as the Transports and the S&P cash remain above their 150 day smooth moving averages I will be a buyer of breaks and looking for the market to trend higher. The main area of resistance that I will be looking for is unchanged in the S&P (1157.64) and above that I will be looking for a test of the 200 day moving average at 1274.70. If the Transports or the S&P cash cannot hold their 150 day smooth moving averages I will turn seller (leaning on the 150 day smooth moving averages) looking for the market to sell off down to my support levels. For my day to day thoughts on the market check out my Morning Brief. Have a great week.
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| S&P Cash |
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| Dow Industrials |
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| E-mini Nasdaq |
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| Dow Transports |
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| VIX |
www.eminiexecutors.com 239-594-6876 info@eminiexecutors.com
Monday, October 17, 2011
Daily Newsletter
Here is today's newsletter that is sent to subscribers every morning before the U.S. markets open.
Morning Brief 10-17
Morning Brief 10-17
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
The week ahead 10/17 - 10/21
The bulls are on the verge of taking complete control of this trade. The Nasdaq has gotten itself comfortably above all of their major moving averages and it looks like they want to make new highs for the year. The Dow closed back in positive territory for the year and that is giving the market confidence. The Transports broke their daily down trend and they are now looking to test some of their important moving averages. The S&P cash is trading right on their 150 day smooth moving average and they are testing the top of this recent range.
The market seems to have taken the debt crisis in Europe and put it on the back burner. Even though the market is rallying, it feels like there has been little participation in this rally. I think that traders are scared to buy into this rally and I also think that a lot of traders are thinking that a continuation of this rally would be unlikely. It feels like a lot of traders missed their chance to buy the market near the lows and nobody wants to chase it higher (we are now riding the wall of worry). I think the lows are in for the year and we will see hedge funds and money managers chase performance into the end of the year.
What could change my mind......
Worse news coming out of Europe or another major event (news can change anything but I think that the worst is behind us for this year).
I think that the Transports will be the key to this rally. If they can sustain trade above their 50 day moving average then I think that we will see new highs in the Nasdaq, Dow and possibly the S&P. If the Transports fail to hold their 50 day moving average then I think that the lows for the year are back in play.
This week I will be keeping a close eye on the Transports. If they continue to grind higher and test resistance I will remain a buyer of breaks in the S&P. If the Transports start to slip then I think that will create some doubt for the bulls and we could see the market sell off and retest some major moving averages. (see charts below)
For my day to day thoughts sign up for a free 7 day trial of the morning brief. Have a great week.
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summers range), Light Blue (Old highs that could be tested)
For my day to day thoughts sign up for a free 7 day trial of the morning brief. Have a great week.
Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.). Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summers range), Light Blue (Old highs that could be tested)
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