Headlines and technicals continue to fight it out...

We are trading a headline driven market that is also in the midst of a major technical battle.  The headlines change intraday almost like an indicator on a chart and while that is going on the long term technicals of this market are shifting from bullish to bearish on a day to day basis.  As a day trader this is usually a great thing when there is massive confusion from day to day but right now I would just like to see who is really in control of this market, the bulls or the bears?  I still think that the bulls have more going for them on the technical side but the current headline risk I think favors the bears.

The Nasdaq 100 futures and Dow Industrials remain in positive territory for the year and continue to sustain trade above their 200 day moving averages.  They are the leaders to the upside and with any help from the other Indices they look like they could make yearly highs in a short amount of time.  The Transports continue to try and push through their 200 day moving average (4,983) and get into positive territory for the year (5,106).  If they can get back above these areas then I think that the bulls will be very happy and then all eyes will be on the S&P cash.

The S&P cash has been struggling mightily to get through their 200 day moving average.  I think this has been the biggest weight on this market (technically).  They have been brushing up against it for weeks and even broken through it intraday, but no luck holding or closing above it.  I think that right now the bulls are at the mercy of the S&P cash.  If they cannot push through their 200 day moving average I think that the entire market will selloff.  If they can push through it then I think that the bulls will have full control of this trade on a technical basis and we could see a nice rally into the end of the year barring any negative headlines that may arise.

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CHART INFORMATION

Moving Averages; Black (10 day), Blue (20 day), Green (50 day), Pink (200 day) Purple (150 day smooth avg.).  Horizontal Lines; Blue (High of the year), Red (Low of the year), Green (Unchanged for the year, Black (last summer’s range) , Light Blue (Highs/Lows of importance).

$SPX

$SPY

$DJIA

$DJT

$NQ_F

$VIX

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