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E-mini Executors: 2010

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Time

The market is just waiting for the new year so we can rally again. The quieter it gets the more likely we are to continue this up trend. The vix has been brutally beaten down to a mere 17. That is not good for shorts. Amazing how this is the best December since 1991. This is probably the slowest in even more years. This is also the smallest amount of short positions in the market in over 4 years. I have not been fading it but it is still hard to put together a good week. This market it just being manipulated to the upside. I am a Bull until any of the big moving averages are broken on the daily. Trade small and smart.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Waiting

The market is just sitting above all the major moving averages. This just tells me that we should continue on this uptrend. When they try to break them down there is just no one in a hurry to sell. The Bulls are in full control. Waiting for next year seems to be the trade that most traders are taking right now. If you are long this market why should you sell? I see no reason to be selling or getting short until we take out the 50 day moving average. Trade small and smart. Take minimal risk right now. No one is getting rich trading this market. If you make money in the morning, just go home and enjoy the rest of your day.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Bulls are Back


The market has now held it's 50 day moving average(green line) for three days in a row. The market is telling you that we are going higher. We are going to close above the 20 day moving average(blueline) as well. All signs that we will probably make new highs for the year. My next resistance area is 121725 in the mini. Above that we should trade up to 124450. Buying breaks for now.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Starting up Again

I am suddenly getting the urge to write about this market again. The action for the past few months has been so boring that I have lacked enthusiasm. That has changed. The market volume is picking up. I believe mostly because of all the crazy things happening in the precious metals along with commodities. Basically anything linked to the dollar trade. I see a very tricky next six months coming in stocks. Are we going to make new highs in the Dow? I don't think so. I believe that we will see a big rally that everyone wants followed by new slide back down. I believe that we are close to a top and I will post some charts coming up this week to prove my theory.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Bearish

The market basically has a double bottom for the year. I don't believe it. This market is just begging for longs to get in. I am bearish because at the end of everyday we sell off. That is the sign of a bear market. Not to mention there is no volume on any of these rallies. I am staying bearish as long as we stay below the 50 day m.a. on the S&P(115710). Today I have 107800 as my pivot. Above that is 109700 and below that is 105950. Selling rallies.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Bearish

The fact is the Bears are back and the Bulls are on the run. This trade is very scary and unpredictable. There could be another crash in the horizon. I say this because the market is trading scared like it did in 2008. When this starts to happen it is like a virus that takes hold of the market place. Until they get everybody out of the market, it cannot go back to normal trading. I believe they have to trade down to the low at 105600 in order to really see what this market is made of. The have to trade down there to prove to everybody that a flash crash is bullshit. The market really crashed and deserved to be at that price. Once this happens the market will resume to a technical trade, which I believe is Bearish. I am selling rallies until proven wrong. Resistance is 110525 and support is 108450. Below 108450 is 105600 and I believe it will happen fast.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Bearish

When the market sells off, it happens quickly and with high volume. This tells me that the market is in trouble. When all of the guys on CNBC are calling for 1300 in the S&P, I tend to get worried. Like I have said before, I will be selling rallies until we make a new high for the year. This market is in bearish mode until then. 115675 is resistance. My pivot is 112975. If we can stay above that area we will trade up to 115675 where I will be a seller. If we cannot hold that area we will trade down to 110275. Selling rallies.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Bearish

The market cannot close above 116025. We should trade down to 113200. If we fail there, then 110400 is next. This market acts like it wants to go higher and before you can blink they are selling off. The selling is coming late in the day which is a sign that they are going lower. Selling rallies until proven wrong.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Bearish

My pivot to the upside is 116025. If we trade above that then the market should trade up to 119000. I am not convinced of this rally. I believe that we will be in a trading range for awhile bearing any news. That range should be 116025 down to 107350. I feel that we are at the top of the current trading range. I am trading small and from the short side. I cannot believe in a stock market when Gold is running the way it is. People do not want to be invested in this stock market. I do not blame them. This is for professionals only. That means that we should trade technically in a range. There is nothing I believe that will push this market above the highs of the year.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Bearish

I am Bearish until this market makes a new high for the year. I believe that we have seen the top for the year and will be in trading range from here on out. There is so much intervention with every issue in the world. They just fix debt issues with more debt..... Debt on top of Debt. If another problem occurs what do they do then? They cannot spend anymore money because there is none. The futures are all over the place. Which tells me that the bears are back and they are taking control. When the VIX has moves like we have seen this week, that means everyone is scared and looking for protection. I am trading small taking advantage of volatility. Resistance is 117370 and support is 111200. My pivot to the upside is 114100. If we stay below that we should trade 111200.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Bearish

This is crazy..... That is all that I can say. What changed this market overnight. I believe that there is more than meets the eye. My guess is that some banks or one bank lost a lot of money and we have not heard the news yet. There has been nothing but selling. I cannot believe that Europe is the cause of this. We shall see. I am extremely bearish because the vix is exploding again and that is how it started the last free fall. Be careful and trade small.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Bearish

If the market cannot hold 116475 we should trade down to 114475. I feel that this will happen because this market is reaching a breaking point and the VIX is proof of this. When the VIX pops this hard and fast this usually means correction or change in trend. I believe that a change in trend could very easily be happening. I will be more of a believer if we trade below the 50 day m.a (116725) for more than 2 weeks. This will force most of the longs out of the market and give the power back to the shorts. I am selling rallies until they violate 116725.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Slightly Bearish

It is the end of the month. We have had a nice run up this month so look for some selling going into the close. Goldman Sachs is opening down 8 bucks this morning due to concerns of some lawsuits. This might be a lag on the market today. Also look out for news on the Greece bailout plan. That can happen at any time. I will be selling rallies in front of 121200 looking for a pullback to 119550. Above 121200 look for 121625. Trading small and selling rallies.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Slightly Bullish

This market takes all the bad news very well. This stock market should be on its ass but it is not. Earnings have been all around pretty good. The news with all the down grades from S&P on these countries has not taken us down that far. The S&P is still only 30 points from yearly highs. This morning I have 119525 as my pivot. If we stay above that we should trade up to 121200. If we can't stay above it we should trade back down to 117850. 117850 is my support area. If that area gets taken out I will be looking for 116150. This market is very volatile and overall the bulls are still in control. I will buying breaks while above 119525. Selling rallies below it.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Slightly Bearish

The market has reached one of my resistance areas at 120675 and held for now. I am short small leaning on that area. If this area gets violated I have 121400 as resistance. This market is very hard to get in front of right now. There is light volume and the Bulls have had there way with it. I will be trading from the short side as long as we stay below 121400. I will be watching the volume very closely today. Along with the direction of the dollar. Right now the dollar is up and we are down. If the dollar stays strong today we should stay down on the day. Support is 118675.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Slightly Bullish

It seems like the higher we go the less volume we have. Yesterday was so anemic that I am seriously wondering where all of the traders are? It seems as though I should just be trading crude or commodities. The market wants to go higher and it does not care if volume comes in. We closed above 11000 in the Dow and we should continue on this rally. 120675 is Resistance in the S&P futures. That will be a big test to the upside. I am waiting for that test before I attempt to short this market. Support today is 118500. Trade small and buy breaks.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Slightly Bearish

The Dow has now gotten above the 11,000 mark that all of the fund managers have been waiting for. The question is what do we do now? I believe that you will see some volatility up here due to short covering and some longs taking profits. If we close above it today look for this market to extend the rally for the next couple days. Resistance in S&P is 120675 and support is 117475.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Neutral,Slightly Bearish

There was little follow through to the downside yesterday. We made a new low from the prior day and then continued higher for the rest of the day. What else is new. Volume was pretty good on the rally so I expect this market to test the highs again. I am not bullish because of the way we trade when we break. High volume with a panic feel. No one wants to be the last person to get out of their longs. Resistance is 119325 and support is 116525.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Bearish

The market is showing signs of correction coming. Volume increases on the downside and there are fewer buyers as we break. That does not mean we will not rally one more time before we start to break. If we close today below 117250 I will believe that the highs are in for awhile. Resistance is 118925 and support is 116800. I will be selling rallies as long as we stay below 117875.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Slightly Bearish

We held the perfect Bell Curve for the year at 118375. Now we have a double there as well. I will be short until they take that high out. Resistance is 118825 and support is 117225. Volatility and volume is still very low so do not look for too much to happen today.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Neutral

A perfect bell curve for the year is 118375. That should be an area that longs should take some profits. Aside from that, I see no reason for this market to stop this rally. Light volume with little or no volatility means the market continues on its trend. I am not bullish, but I need to see some sellers before I am a believer of being short. Trading small and neutral until then. Support is 116175 and resistance is 118375.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Neutral,Slightly Bullish

We are in an uptrend off the lows of the year. As long as we stay in an uptrend off these lows and stay above the 50 day m.a. we should trade higher. You can only fade the tape for so long. This market just wants to rally. I may not believe it, but the market is telling me otherwise. Resistance is 114700, support is 113050 and 111425.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Neutral

I am still concerned that this rally will end with a big break. All though we are above the 50 day m.a. I am still not a believer. In the past when we have rallies like this they tend to over exaggerate the upside and then exaggerate the downside. No volume with no volatility tells me that the bull market is here for now. Trading small until I can make sense of it all. Resistance is 114700 and support is 111400.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Neutral

We had unemployment numbers that were so called "good numbers" but the reality is we are still at 10% unemployment and weak signs of job growth. This market will struggle to go higher without the public's participation. I feel like the market will now trade in a range for awhile now that these unemployment numbers are out. I will be scalping both sides of this overnight range today. Trade small because this is still a limbo market. Resistance is 113425 and support is 112175.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Neutral

It is hard to be long a market with no volume. That is why it may ultimately be right. The hard trade is long. It is so easy to be short up here because of the lack of volume and volatility. I have been waiting to see how the market is doing by the close. If we cannot go higher, the market sells off going into the close. That usually is a bearish sign. That sign needs to be reinforced by taking out prior days lows. We have not been doing that. I am staying neutral until this market starts making sense. Resistance is 112650 and support is 110950.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Neutral

Everyday that passes I get more confused. This rally has had no volume and no support from the stocks themselves. There are very few stocks near there 52 week highs, yet the market is near its 52 week high. I do not see anything that proves to me we should continue higher from here. Lower volume everyday with no support from the stock market. When this is going on, I believe that the market has an agenda and nothing will support this move, which is why it will continue on its path. So stay away until it makes sense again. Resistance is 112525 and support is 110775.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Neutral

The market has had a 82 point rally in the S&P over the last 8 Trading days. There is very little volume to support this move. I am neutral because this market is acting very strong but with very little support. There is obviously an agenda in the market right now. They are searching out stops because there is little volume. I believe there will be a retest of the 50 day m.a. by the end of the week (110575). I have resistance at 112100 and support at 109775. Trade small with no opinion until volume picks up.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Neutral

Neutral. The market is in limbo. We are hanging out around the 50 day m.a. The market is waiting to see if we want to be above or below it. It feels like it wants to go higher again. It is the first day of the month and we are in the middle of rollover. Look for high volatility with mixed direction. Resistance is 111500 and support is 109775.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Neutral

Yesterdays close was a bullish close. I am waiting to see how the market opens and takes all of these numbers today. AIG will be a wait in the financials this morning. I will be looking to sell rallies up to the 50 day m.a. at 110550. If that gets violated, I will be working the bid up to 112075. Wait and see. Trade small. Look for high volatility with a small range. Support is 107800 and resistance is the 50 day and 112075.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Bearish

This market has the writing on the wall for another dip. The Euro is getting weaker and weaker. Along with Gold getting stronger and stronger. My charts are telling me that this market is in trouble. We came up to far and too fast. Same old story. I now believe that volatility will get some of the longs out of the market. Anytime the market gets above the 50 day m.a. and then crosses back down below it, that is very bearish. We have tried 4 times to get back above it. Failing each time. Usually this starts the bear market. Selling rallies today. Support is 108225. Below that the market is in bad shape and look for 107350. Resistance is 110350 and 110950.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Bearish

The market failed at the 50 day again. We held the support that I had at 109000 so I will not be over anxious on being short near that area. Volume was high on the break. When they rallied volume was weak. Stick with the shorts but be careful of being short near yesterdays low. Today might be an inside day. If we take out yesterdays low we should trade down to 108225. Resistance is 110500 and support is 108225.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Bearish

The markets action has still been bearish to me. Higher volume on breaks and the rallies are very uneventful. I am looking for the market to open up below the 50 day this morning and try to stay below it. If this happens, look for the market to trade down to 109000. If this does not happen, the market should trade up to 102075. This is an important test for the market. Resistance is 102075 and support is 108225.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Neutral

Friday's close was right on the 50 day m.a. I am waiting to see how they open today. If they cannot get below the 50 day in the first hour I will be turning bullish. Resistance is 112075 and support is 108225. I will have a wait and see attitude on todays open.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Neutral-Bearish

I am still bearish because yesterday we traded up to the 50 day and closed below. This morning we are lower but it is because of the .25 point hike in the Fed's Discount Rate. So I am waiting to see how we open. If we open up and go right above the 50 day (110500) I will not be bearish anymore. I will wait to see how the market closes. Friday closes are important. Plus today there is options expiration on the close. Trade small and watch for high volatility. Resistance is 110825 and support is 108625.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Bearish

The market cannot trade its 50 day moving average. Until it does I am selling rallies. This market has come back half way for the year and stalled. I believe that we will trade in the bottom half of the range and make a run at the lows of the year. Resistance is 110450 and support is 106975. Trade small and sell rallies.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Bearish

I am still bearish. This market has to trade above the 50 day 110500 before I believe in this rally. I will be selling rallies in front of the 50 day m.a. Today's close is very important. A close above is very bullish and below is still bearish. Also today is the FOMC minutes. Support is 106975 resistance is 110500.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Bearish

The market has had a nice rally off the recent lows of 104075. We have seen light volume on this up move and it seems as though it has just been some short covering. There is so much confusion on the street whether or not this bull market has come to a halt. I believe it has and we will start to trend down. When the market breaks the uptrend and then falls below the 50 day m.a. it is just no good any more. Selling rallies until they get above the 50 day (110500). Resistance is 108750 and support is 105825.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Bearish

This market is just holding off the bears for now. All that I see is selling and then some short covering. We held my resistance overnight at 107925 and now I am looking for the market to test support at 105725. If that does not hold, look for them to go after the recent low at 104075. Sell rallies on short term charts.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Bearish

The market is more skittish everyday. This high volatility and high volume is not good for the bulls. The bulls need the market to trade back up to the 50 day moving average very soon or you will start to see selling accelerate. Resistance is 107925 and support is 105600. Selling rallies until they prove me wrong.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Bearish

We cannot get above the 10 day moving average. The market increases in volume on down moves and when we rally there are sellers the whole way up. I am bearish unless they can take out the 10 day. Resistance is 107450 and support is 104600.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Slightly Bearish

The market is trying to figure out this correction. Are we done or has it just started? Look for a range trade on these recent lows. My feeling is that the correction is just starting. This recent break acted a lot like the beginning of the break in 2008. Extreme volatility with high volume. Resistance is 107175-107375 and support is 104800. Selling rallies on short term charts until they blow through some resistance.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Slightly Bearish


We did not make a new high on Friday afternoon. That tells me that the market is still weak and look to sell rallies. I have it being pretty tight in this area for now. Resistance is 107375 and support is 103800. I will be selling rallies on my short term charts until they hit my support or resistance areas.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Slightly Bearish


The market had a low volume rally on the close yesterday. We came up short of my resistance at 110450 and started to head down overnight. I do not believe that this market is ready to go back up yet. Volume increases on the break and decreases on the rally. That is a sign of weak market in the short term. I am selling rallies until we have high volume on the upside and we break through my resistance levels. Resistance today is 111475 and support is 107275-107050.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Neutral

FOMC meeting today. Keeping the powder dry until this number comes out. Support is 107525 and resistance is 110900.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Slightly Bearish


The market is selling off on increasing volume. My support areas are not holding. I will be selling rallies until we hold a support area for more than a day or two. I believe that we are still in a bull market so I will not be selling into any breaks. Support now is 107525 and resistance is 110900.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Slightly Bullish


The market has finally retraced a little bit to test some of the longs. Volume has picked up and volatility has increased. You have to wait and see what they do over the next few days before we start to believe that a larger correction is in place. I am slightly bullish today because we are in a bull market and when there are big breaks in a bull market we usually trade up the next day or two. Support is now 108900 and resistance is 115700-115850. Use your short term charts to get in long but do not be stubborn.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Earnings, Neutral


There are a lot of earnings coming out in the next 2 weeks so I am staying on the sidelines. I will just scalp short term charts with no real opinion. When all of this data is out, the market will start having some direction and I will go back to trading bigger positions. Until then, trade small and wait for these earnings and also the FOMC to pass. My big support area is 111850 and Resistance is 115600. I will dip in if we trade these areas.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Bearish


We had a high volume up move right on the open and then a complete reversal below opening range. We broke the uptrend for the year. Which tells me you will continue to see selling for the rest of the day. Support is 112700 and resistance is 115175-115600.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Slightly Bullish


We had a nice volume rally yesterday from the uptrend for the year. The market is holding its trend so do not fade it. Support is 112700-112475. Resistance is 115600.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Slightly Bullish


We are opening lower at my support. I have to try and be long until they break a support area. Especially when we have been filling in all the upside gaps. Support 113350-112825. Resistance is 115600.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Slightly Bullish


The trend continues...... This market is going up without volume or retracement. That is a sign of bull market that will hit a wall and collapse at some point. When the market has only one direction, in this case up, we tend to retrace the whole move. As we have seen in the past. I am not very active in this kind of market. Pick your spots and believe in your system. Wait for the volatility to increase. Support is 112825 and resistance is 115600.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Neutral,Slightly Bullish



One trend I am noticing is that the highest volume traded at one price(high volume bar) is higher everyday. Which tells me that a top is nearing because the longs are getting in on the rally and not on the break. That means any pullback may not have buyers because the buyers are rushing in. It also means that if the trend is broken, we might have a bigger correction than most people think. A change in this uptrend is crucial to this markets psychology. It seems that everyone riding this trend is riding it until it breaks. Support is 112275 and resistance is 114500.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Neutral,Slightly Bullish


We are making new highs everyday with lighter volume. At some point you should see some selling because the longs get exhausted, and they get out of some of their positions. I am not very convinced on either side of the market right now. As I have said before, stick with the trend. The trend is up, so I am still slightly bullish. Pullbacks are healthy and necessary so be ready if they happen. Support is 112500 and resistance is 113725.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Bullish


The market is just slow. We are in a uptrend and there is very little business. So do not fight it. I am not making many trades right now. I am waiting for support or resistance levels to be tested. Support is 110350 and resistance is 113950.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Bullish and Range Bound


After yesterday's boring start to the year, the charts are tightening up. Volatility on the VIX is nearing two year lows. Which leads me to believe that there is very little interest in the stock market right now. People have made there bets and we are in a wait and see mode. That means stick with the trend until the trend changes. Unless there is a explosive move in the trend. I am trading very small with low expectations. Take what you can get and be very patient. Let your prices come to you. Resistance is now at 113950 and support is at 110350. No big positions for me unless they trade those areas.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Bullish


We are starting the year with a gap up. The market is continuing on it's upward trend. The market sold off on New Years Eve giving the Bulls another opportunity to get in. I have resistance at 113300 and support at 110550. Remember to start the year on a positive note. Be patient and stick with the trend until the trend breaks.(If it does)