All eyes on Crude Oil and Middle East

This week has been all about the Middle East and the price of Crude Oil.  The S&P is trading against Crude Oil.  Crude rallies we break, Crude breaks we rally.  Today I was doing some selling before the open from 1302.00 to 1303.75 and got stopped out 1305.25.  I thought that the market would hold the single ticks from Market Profile that I pointed out in my Morning Brief but I was wrong.  When the market finally opened I waited to see how we traded around the pivot at 1303.75.  The early morning low was 1302.75, once the market went 1303.75 bid coming off that low I started to dip in on the long side.  I felt that if the market stayed above 1303.75 we should test resistance at 1313.00 but we came up short only trading up to 1310.00.  I still made some money on my longs, just enough to get me even from the shorts that I took pre-market.  I stayed on the sidelines and waited to see what the market was going to do.  I felt the market would either rally up to 1313.00 or retest 1303.75.  I tried to buy the retest at 1303.75 and that was only successful for a few ticks before I noticed Crude starting to rally again.  Once the morning low of 1302.75 was taken out I started to get short.  I tried to stay short but they were not making it easy.  I ended up just scalping making a few ticks here and there.  I was watching Crude and just started to fade whatever Crude was doing.  That worked out for me.  Today was choppy and tricky at times but if you just faded Crude you ended up making some money.  We have to remember that we are also in rollover and technicals are really second hand right now.  I still believe that you need to have technicals but don't count on them working all day.  With all of the news coming out of the Middle East along with rollover that just spells CHOPPY.  There is always tomorrow and tomorrow happens to be Friday.  I am looking forward to the weekend.  Have a good night.  DELI
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Stocks fall over worries in Middle East

Today the market had quite a ride.  In my morning brief I wrote that I was looking to get short at 1332.50 leaning on this area of resistance.  They got me out of some of my shorts because they started to rally into some single ticks from Market Profile.  I stayed short with a small position and waited for the market to trade back down below 1332.50.  Once it did I started pressing and added more shorts on.  I scalped my way out on the way down to support at 1322.75.  Once they broke that area it was pretty much doomsday for the longs.  I just tried to keep getting short and covering but it was tough because there was never any good rallies to sell from there.  Kept my money and just watched as they traded down to 1313.00 where there was support.  I dabbled and got long small, never really committed to being long.  All in all today was a good day to make some money.  High volatility and high volume.  Looking for tomorrow to tell me a lot about what today really was.  Read my morning brief in the a.m for my thoughts.  Have a good night.  
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The Grind Continues

The market continued on its up trend and made new highs for the year. Nothing surprising happened today just the same old grind up trade. The market hit my resistance at131750 and traded higher up to 132000 just high enough or should I say low enough to keep in my shorts. My stop was at 132025. The market then traded lower to 131325. There never was a time today where there was a lot of selling. We closed just below my resistance at 131750. We might see some selling going into tomorrow possibly trading back down to 130950 where we left some single ticks. I put up a market profile chart up showing the single ticks. I believe that the market may consolidate up here for awhile building support in this area. I am not bearish but we may trade lower from here tomorrow because they didn't close as well as I would have liked to see. The VIX closed higher at 16.30 up 37 ticks for the day. The VIX seems to be range bound for awhile as well. Nothing exciting today as I look forward to tomorrow.

Inside Day

The market just needed a day to take in what has happened in the past week. I still believe the trend will remain bullish. I believe that we will see some resistance in this area but ultimately go higher again. Bull markets are very hard to day trade because you are constantly thinking that the move higher is over and you are possibly long from the top. You have to be disciplined and use your short term charts to find areas of support. Buying breaks and not buying into rallies. I struggle with this myself. Everyone seems to believe that we are going higher and that is easy to fade because most people tend to take the contrarian trade. When everyone is one way you should be the other. I believe in that but sometimes it just plain doesn't work until you are long out of the market. You have to be patient and let the market tell you when it is time to sell. Today I put in a daily chart of the S&P cash from March 2006 to show you what we did last time we crossed 1300 in the S&P. You will see that we gradually moved higher to about 1326 then slipped back down to 1220 to only rally back up to 1390 all in a 8 month period. This tells me that we should start get pretty volatile in the next several months.

Rally, Rally, Rally

Another good close on Wall St. We closed above my support area of 129975. This tells me that we should trade up to 131700. This market just wants to go up. This morning in my brief I noted that I would be watching the VIX to see if it got below 18. When it did we just never looked back. The VIX closed at 17.63 which is a bullish close for the market. I believe that we will see some resistance at 131225 before we test my resistance at 131700. Today I included a chart showing the S&P over the past 13 years. Just looking at this chart I cannot find any time that the market consolidated in this area. I put a horizontal line to show the only place that we have failed from a couple of times. If we get above that area we should see some stops. We just go from highs to lows and back up to highs. I hate to agree with all the bulls (because I hate a crowded trade) but they seem to be right. Barring any global events I think that the low for the year is in at 1255.25 in the mini. Friday was chance to get in at a great price that you may not see for awhile. The good news is that the market seems to be getting busier and that is a good sign for bulls or bears. Have a good night.