Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Neutral,Slightly Bullish
We are in an uptrend off the lows of the year. As long as we stay in an uptrend off these lows and stay above the 50 day m.a. we should trade higher. You can only fade the tape for so long. This market just wants to rally. I may not believe it, but the market is telling me otherwise. Resistance is 114700, support is 113050 and 111425.
Labels:
Neutral,
Slightly Bullish
Monday, March 8, 2010
Neutral
I am still concerned that this rally will end with a big break. All though we are above the 50 day m.a. I am still not a believer. In the past when we have rallies like this they tend to over exaggerate the upside and then exaggerate the downside. No volume with no volatility tells me that the bull market is here for now. Trading small until I can make sense of it all. Resistance is 114700 and support is 111400.
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Neutral
Friday, March 5, 2010
Neutral
We had unemployment numbers that were so called "good numbers" but the reality is we are still at 10% unemployment and weak signs of job growth. This market will struggle to go higher without the public's participation. I feel like the market will now trade in a range for awhile now that these unemployment numbers are out. I will be scalping both sides of this overnight range today. Trade small because this is still a limbo market. Resistance is 113425 and support is 112175.
Labels:
Neutral
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Neutral
It is hard to be long a market with no volume. That is why it may ultimately be right. The hard trade is long. It is so easy to be short up here because of the lack of volume and volatility. I have been waiting to see how the market is doing by the close. If we cannot go higher, the market sells off going into the close. That usually is a bearish sign. That sign needs to be reinforced by taking out prior days lows. We have not been doing that. I am staying neutral until this market starts making sense. Resistance is 112650 and support is 110950.
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Neutral
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Neutral
Everyday that passes I get more confused. This rally has had no volume and no support from the stocks themselves. There are very few stocks near there 52 week highs, yet the market is near its 52 week high. I do not see anything that proves to me we should continue higher from here. Lower volume everyday with no support from the stock market. When this is going on, I believe that the market has an agenda and nothing will support this move, which is why it will continue on its path. So stay away until it makes sense again. Resistance is 112525 and support is 110775.
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Neutral
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Neutral
The market has had a 82 point rally in the S&P over the last 8 Trading days. There is very little volume to support this move. I am neutral because this market is acting very strong but with very little support. There is obviously an agenda in the market right now. They are searching out stops because there is little volume. I believe there will be a retest of the 50 day m.a. by the end of the week (110575). I have resistance at 112100 and support at 109775. Trade small with no opinion until volume picks up.
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Neutral
Monday, March 1, 2010
Neutral
Neutral. The market is in limbo. We are hanging out around the 50 day m.a. The market is waiting to see if we want to be above or below it. It feels like it wants to go higher again. It is the first day of the month and we are in the middle of rollover. Look for high volatility with mixed direction. Resistance is 111500 and support is 109775.
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Neutral
Friday, February 26, 2010
Neutral
Yesterdays close was a bullish close. I am waiting to see how the market opens and takes all of these numbers today. AIG will be a wait in the financials this morning. I will be looking to sell rallies up to the 50 day m.a. at 110550. If that gets violated, I will be working the bid up to 112075. Wait and see. Trade small. Look for high volatility with a small range. Support is 107800 and resistance is the 50 day and 112075.
Labels:
Neutral
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Bearish
This market has the writing on the wall for another dip. The Euro is getting weaker and weaker. Along with Gold getting stronger and stronger. My charts are telling me that this market is in trouble. We came up to far and too fast. Same old story. I now believe that volatility will get some of the longs out of the market. Anytime the market gets above the 50 day m.a. and then crosses back down below it, that is very bearish. We have tried 4 times to get back above it. Failing each time. Usually this starts the bear market. Selling rallies today. Support is 108225. Below that the market is in bad shape and look for 107350. Resistance is 110350 and 110950.
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Bearish
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Bearish
The market failed at the 50 day again. We held the support that I had at 109000 so I will not be over anxious on being short near that area. Volume was high on the break. When they rallied volume was weak. Stick with the shorts but be careful of being short near yesterdays low. Today might be an inside day. If we take out yesterdays low we should trade down to 108225. Resistance is 110500 and support is 108225.
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Bearish
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Bearish
The markets action has still been bearish to me. Higher volume on breaks and the rallies are very uneventful. I am looking for the market to open up below the 50 day this morning and try to stay below it. If this happens, look for the market to trade down to 109000. If this does not happen, the market should trade up to 102075. This is an important test for the market. Resistance is 102075 and support is 108225.
Labels:
Bearish
Monday, February 22, 2010
Neutral
Friday's close was right on the 50 day m.a. I am waiting to see how they open today. If they cannot get below the 50 day in the first hour I will be turning bullish. Resistance is 112075 and support is 108225. I will have a wait and see attitude on todays open.
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Neutral
Friday, February 19, 2010
Neutral-Bearish
I am still bearish because yesterday we traded up to the 50 day and closed below. This morning we are lower but it is because of the .25 point hike in the Fed's Discount Rate. So I am waiting to see how we open. If we open up and go right above the 50 day (110500) I will not be bearish anymore. I will wait to see how the market closes. Friday closes are important. Plus today there is options expiration on the close. Trade small and watch for high volatility. Resistance is 110825 and support is 108625.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Bearish
The market cannot trade its 50 day moving average. Until it does I am selling rallies. This market has come back half way for the year and stalled. I believe that we will trade in the bottom half of the range and make a run at the lows of the year. Resistance is 110450 and support is 106975. Trade small and sell rallies.
Labels:
Bearish
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Bearish
I am still bearish. This market has to trade above the 50 day 110500 before I believe in this rally. I will be selling rallies in front of the 50 day m.a. Today's close is very important. A close above is very bullish and below is still bearish. Also today is the FOMC minutes. Support is 106975 resistance is 110500.
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Bearish
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Bearish
The market has had a nice rally off the recent lows of 104075. We have seen light volume on this up move and it seems as though it has just been some short covering. There is so much confusion on the street whether or not this bull market has come to a halt. I believe it has and we will start to trend down. When the market breaks the uptrend and then falls below the 50 day m.a. it is just no good any more. Selling rallies until they get above the 50 day (110500). Resistance is 108750 and support is 105825.
Labels:
Bearish
Friday, February 12, 2010
Bearish
This market is just holding off the bears for now. All that I see is selling and then some short covering. We held my resistance overnight at 107925 and now I am looking for the market to test support at 105725. If that does not hold, look for them to go after the recent low at 104075. Sell rallies on short term charts.
Labels:
Bearish
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Bearish
The market is more skittish everyday. This high volatility and high volume is not good for the bulls. The bulls need the market to trade back up to the 50 day moving average very soon or you will start to see selling accelerate. Resistance is 107925 and support is 105600. Selling rallies until they prove me wrong.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Bearish
We cannot get above the 10 day moving average. The market increases in volume on down moves and when we rally there are sellers the whole way up. I am bearish unless they can take out the 10 day. Resistance is 107450 and support is 104600.
Labels:
Bearish
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Slightly Bearish
The market is trying to figure out this correction. Are we done or has it just started? Look for a range trade on these recent lows. My feeling is that the correction is just starting. This recent break acted a lot like the beginning of the break in 2008. Extreme volatility with high volume. Resistance is 107175-107375 and support is 104800. Selling rallies on short term charts until they blow through some resistance.
Labels:
Slightly Bearish
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